Could Uganda’s Budongo Forest Be Ground Zero for the Next Global Pandemic?

Masindi – Just a short distance from Aliyo Sarile’s tobacco farm, the wild expanse of Budongo Forest in Uganda stands tall with a vibrant canopy and wild greenery, creating a clear boundary.

Every morning, Aliyo wakes up to nature’s orchestra: the melodious chirps of birds, the hooting of chimps overhead, and the commanding calls of baboons—sounds that neither disturb nor amuse him in his daily routine.

Yet, the balance of the forest has been disturbed.

Chimpanzees and baboons now frequently leave their leafy refuge to raid Aliyo’s fields, indulging in his fruits and sometimes trampling his delicate tobacco seedlings underfoot.

When these wild intruders arrive, Aliyo brandishes a sturdy stick and shouts to reclaim his territory.

“I steer clear of touching them or the spots they’ve touched, knowing these animals can spread diseases,” he explains.

These unwelcome incursions are no accident.

Over ten years ago, spurred by increasing global demand for tobacco, local farmers cleared Budongo Forest of Raphia farinifera palm trees to create strings for curing, unintentionally eliminating a crucial source of minerals for the primates.

This environmental disruption forced the primates to consume bat feces, which a 2024 study published in *Nature* reveals carries several concerning viruses, including those associated with SARS, a family of coronaviruses responsible for COVID-19.

This seemingly innocuous dietary shift has created what experts now believe to be a potential pathway for harmful bat-borne viruses to jump from wildlife to humans, presenting the risk of another catastrophic spillover event, just after COVID-19 altered life worldwide.

Experts warn that heightened interactions between humans and primates, driven by forest degradation and resource sharing, foster ideal conditions for viral spillover.

A vast range of viruses circulate quietly among animal populations, sometimes crossing species lines to infect humans and cause disease.

Historically, devastating outbreaks such as the plague, Spanish flu, and COVID-19 originated in animals before spilling over into human communities—this phenomenon is called zoonotic spillover.

Ecologists emphasize that the disappearance of these mineral-rich trees, once vital for primate diets, has destabilized the ecosystem, increasing the likelihood of disease spillover to humans.

Uganda stands at a critical intersection of viral threat, often facing outbreaks of Marburg, Mpox, and Ebola.

Recently, the country grappled with an Ebola outbreak that began in January.

Currently, although there’s no apparent risk among the wildlife or human communities close to Budongo Forest, vigilance is vital, according to Dr. Deogratias Sekimpi, a public health expert and technical adviser at the Uganda National Association of Community and Occupational Health, a local NGO.

“The true challenge lies in early detection,” points out Henry Kyobe Bbosa, incident commander at the Ministry of Health, who has been instrumental in managing Uganda’s responses to COVID-19, Mpox, and the Ebola Sudan outbreak.

“Once an outbreak is confirmed, follow-up response mechanisms are quickly implemented.”

Within this forest, humans and wildlife continually vie for the same resources, offering pathways for pathogens to traverse species barriers.

“People draw water from the ponds in the forest, which are also the drinking sources for animals,” notes Simon Peter Ogola, a forest ecologist and research training coordinator at Budongo Conservation Field Station.

The catalysts for emerging diseases—deforestation, hunting, urbanization, climate change, and industrial agriculture—are well-documented by scientists, yet the exact mechanisms allowing pathogens to jump between species remain unclear.

In Budongo, the *Nature* study outlines a clear sequence: the demand for tobacco cultivation led to deforestation, which then forced dietary alterations in primates.

Despite a decline in tobacco farming after the 2015 Tobacco Control Act, a recent resurgence has emerged, with production projected to climb from 32,965 metric tons in 2022 to 35,600 metric tons by 2028.

This uptick raises alarms among experts about further deforestation.

There are around 75,000 tobacco farmers in Uganda.

In 2023, Uganda exported $67.9 million worth of raw tobacco, making it the country’s 10th most exported product, according to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity.

Adule Benon is a new generation of tobacco farmers, having started his journey in 2023.

To cure his harvest, he occasionally gathers wood from the forest, though he also buys strings from locals.

According to Adule, tobacco has proven to be more profitable than maize for farmers over the years.

Like many in the region, Adule often enters the forest for water and firewood, while wildlife, particularly chimpanzees, reciprocate by visiting human habitats.

“Sometimes I see them in the woods. Other times, they come to enjoy the mangoes in my yard,” he shares.

A 2015 study indicated that significant land use changes within the Budongo and Bugoma forest reserves have altered the dynamics between local communities and chimpanzees from coexistence to conflict.

As trees dwindle in the forests, encounters between humans and chimpanzees have surged.

“This relationship is frequently strained, especially when chimps and baboons enter human territories to compete with children for mangoes, bananas, and jackfruit,” Ogola elaborates.

“We record around 10 attacks each year, primarily involving chimpanzees targeting children under 10 years old.”

*Nakisanze Segawa is a Global Press Journal Reporter-in-Residence based in Kampala, Uganda.

Micheal Ezati Nyakafunjo translated some interviews from Lugbara and Swahili.

*This article was originally published by Global Press Journal, which provides incisive, investigative, and in-depth explanatory reporting on the world’s most pressing issues.