Rivian Anticipates a 16% Drop in 2025 Sales Compared to Previous Year

Rivian now projects that it will deliver a maximum of 43,500 electric vehicles by the end of 2025, representing a drop of almost 16% from the sales figures of last year.

On Thursday, the company updated its forecast for investors, alongside production and delivery figures for the third quarter. Rivian reported a rise in deliveries, totaling 13,201 vehicles, up from 10,661 in the second quarter and 8,640 in the first. In this period, the company also produced 10,720 EVs.

This showcases a strong rebound following a slow start to the year. However, Rivian has nearly confirmed that deliveries this year will be below both 2024 and 2023 levels, when it sold just over 50,000 electric vehicles.

The challenges Rivian faces in boosting sales come at a crucial time as it prepares to introduce the R2 SUV next year, which is anticipated to be its most affordable and sought-after vehicle. The company aims to manufacture and sell hundreds of thousands of these SUVs, investing in the expansion of its Normal, Illinois factory for production. Furthermore, Rivian has begun constructing a new factory in Georgia, designated for the R2 and its hatchback counterpart, the R3.

At the start of this year, Rivian had high expectations of matching 2024’s sales, forecasting deliveries between 46,000 and 51,000 vehicles. Rivian successfully sold 51,579 vehicles in 2024.

However, by May, with President Trump implementing extensive and constantly changing tariffs, the company lowered its forecast to between 40,000 and 46,000 vehicles. Rivian attributed the revision to “evolving trade regulations, policies, tariffs, and the overall impact these factors may have on consumer sentiment and demand.”

On Thursday, the company further adjusted that estimate to a range of 41,500 to 43,500 vehicles.

Electric vehicles are currently encountering significant hurdles in the U.S., especially as the Trump administration takes a more adversarial approach toward electric vehicles and renewable energy. Major automakers are aligning with this position, with many delaying or entirely scrapping plans for new EVs, while also supporting the administration’s attempts to relax emissions regulations.

Despite these challenges, most automakers saw a considerable rise in EV sales during the third quarter, motivated by consumer urgency to take advantage of the declining $7,500 federal EV tax credit. This rush for the credit significantly contributed to Tesla reaching record delivery figures.

Rivian may not have experienced the same surge in demand tied to the credit’s expiration, as its vehicles were only eligible for the incentive if leased.

Nevertheless, Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe remains hopeful about his company’s future in a world without the credit. In an August interview with InsideEVs, Scaringe noted that some automakers were distorting the market with unprofitable EVs, intending to acquire regulatory credits to sell to competitors. He believes that once the federal subsidy is removed, this strategy will be unsustainable.

“As we progress through the rest of the 2020s, particularly until 2029 or 2030, I foresee a sort of competitive vacuum. The pure-play, EV-focused companies—Rivian, Tesla—are quite limited, and because they are solely focused on electrification, they will thrive in a relatively sparse competitive environment,” he concluded.